In my recent article projecting the Top 10 Defenses for 2024, I made the argument that defense still matters in the current NFL landscape, and it absolutely does.

However, I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge the simple fact that the game of professional football is more Offense-driven than it has ever been. Of the Top 12 teams in the league in offensive yards/game in 2023, 11 of them made the Postseason. It was a similar story when looking at points/game stats, with 12 of the Top 15 offenses in that category making the Playoffs. When it comes to Advanced metrics, only the Steelers (23rd) and Browns (28th) qualified for the postseason with an offense that finished outside the Top 15 in EPA/play.

Unsurprisingly, Quarterback play had a massive role in determining the league’s best offenses of 2023. Now more than ever, having an elite QB lifts the ceiling of your team at a different level than any other factor. Passers who can efficiently operate the offensive scheme they play in and also consistently make plays out of structure have the ability to lift the team around them in ways elite players at other positions cannot. If you don’t have one of these guys, you’re doing everything you can to find one. If you do have one, you’re opening up the checkbook to keep him.

For this exercise, I’m projecting the Top 10 offenses for 2024 based on offseason talent acquisitions and losses, current QB situation, and numerous other factors that will contribute to each team’s offensive output this upcoming season. Let’s dive in!

1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Not only does San Fran boast maybe the best compilation of playmakers in the league, they also deploy the most sophisticated offensive system in football under Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. QB Brock Purdy has his limitations, but he operates the offense efficiently and knows how to get the ball into the hands of his bevy of weapons in the passing game and out of the backfield. If neither Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel gets traded prior to the start of the season, this unit should once again be near the top of the league in all major statistics.

2. MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Dolphins are once again the fastest team in the NFL, led by All-World receiver Tyreek Hill and his newly-paid running mate Jaylen Waddle along with 3 pure speed backs in Raheem Mostert, Devon Achane, and Rookie Jaylen Wright. While I have my doubts that Tua Tagovailoa is the QB that can take the Fins all the way to a Championship, I do believe in his ability to fluidly operate HC Mike McDaniel’s high-powered scheme. Miami finished 1st in Yards and 2nd in Points Scored in 2023. I expect a similar result in 2024.

3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Locked and loaded once again with talent and depth, the Eagles look to reclaim the offensive dominance they displayed in 2022 and their hot start to 2023. With RB Saquon Barkley joining AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, Philly boasts elite playmakers to stress defenses at all levels of the field. Despite the losses up front on the OL, nobody develops the boys up front like OL Coach Jeff Stoutland. Look for QB Jalen Hurts and company to have a real bounce-back season on O.

4. DALLAS COWBOYS

There are many Cowboys fans and media personalities questioning the Cowboys’ plan after bottoming the league in cash spending this offseason. Despite their relatively quiet last few months, the ‘Boys do bring back one of the league’s best QBs in Dak Prescott and it’s most productive receiver from 2023 in CeeDee Lamb. I have concerns with the running game, but the OL is looking solid, especially if Rookie 1st-Round pick Tyler Guyton can prove capable early this season. I’m bullish on Dak and co. figuring it out in 2024.

5. DETROIT LIONS

Jared Goff earned a massive contract extension this offseason, and OC Ben Johnson returns again with eyes set on a Super Bowl run. Goff’s two All-Pro weapons in the passing game, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (who also just got the bag from Detroit) and 2nd-year TE Sam LaPorta, helped lead the Lions to the league’s 2nd ranked passing offense. The Lions should keep the good vibes rolling in 2024.

6. NEW YORK JETS

Aaron Rodgers is BACK! For now at least. If the 4x MVP stays healthy, the Jets are an intriguing offense in 2024. Garrett Wilson is primed for a huge season, and he actually has some legitimate help on the outside in FA pickup Mike Williams. Breece Hall is one of the league’s most explosive backs, and it just feels like the Jets are due a big season offensively after the worst luck in the league on that side of the ball in 2023. Watch out for Gang Green.

7. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Lamar Jackson is just to explosive and too unpredictable to keep this Ravens offense off this Top 10 list. OC Todd Monken is going into his 2nd year, as is dynamic receiver Zay Flowers, who came on really strong late in the year. With another year in this improved offensive system, the Ravens look to fly again on O in 2024 after finishing 1st in Rushing Yds/Gm and 4th in PPG.

8. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

As long as Patrick Mahomes is Quarterbacking the Chiefs, this is a Top 10 offense in the NFL. The Chiefs offseason additions at WR feel like scheme-specific adds for a team that lacked speed on the outside in 2023 and refuses to live that way again this season. The OL is good overall, and RB Isiah Pacheco gives KC a fantastic complimentary run game to keep Defenses on their toes. It’s a good group overall, but the chemistry Mahomes will try to develop with Hollywood Brown and Rookie Xavier Worthy will truly determine just how good the Chiefs O will be this season.

9. HOUSTON TEXANS

This Texans squad is absolutely loaded. If CJ Stroud continues to improve heading into his sophomore campaign, he has the weapons on the outside to work all areas of the field proficiently. Adding RB Joe Mixon should add some reliability out of the backfield as both a runner and receiver, and I expect this unit’s overall efficiency to drastically improve this season after finishing 15th in EPA/Play and a paltry 24th in Success Rate (SR) in 2023.

10. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Joe Burrow is BACK! Right? The wrist injury is still concerning despite reports that he’s 100% after the freak injury sidelined him for the 2nd half of 2023. If he is healthy, this offense can soar. Burrow doesn’t make mistakes, and there’s plenty of explosiveness on the outside in WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It will be interesting to see if Burrow is willing to play more under center this season after seeing the team’s success doing so with Jake Browning on the field as his replacement after the injury. After placing an impressive 5th in EPA/play and 4th in SR in 2022, Cincy fell to 13th and 11th in those categories respectively. I’d expect a “throwback” performance from the Bengals in 2024.

Just Missed: Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars