On the most recent episode of the Steelers Stat Geek podcast, I dove into an idea presented by Coach KT Smith in regards to the outcome of games the week after the Steelers play the Baltimore Ravens. Taking this idea and expanding upon it into several different categories, I was able to find several places on the Steelers schedule where they are more likely to get a victory as well as the chance of winning being greatly reduced.

I looked at games from the last 10 years for the Steelers, which dates back to the 2014 season. Initially looking at games that came after certain events, I also looked at others just to get a better feel. Some categories are quite broad while others are a little more specific. There may be other small categories that I did not specifically dive into, but these were the ones I came across which stood out.

To start, I will look at the five worst spots on the Steelers schedule where they have the most difficulty in obtaining a victory. Things may look bad now, make sure you look out tomorrow on the other end of the spectrum where the Steelers do quite well. For reference sake, in regular season games the last 10 years, the Steelers have a winning percentage of 0.632 overall.

A short week after playing Baltimore (.000)

This is one of those very specific scenarios that I happened to stumble across and make note of that I was not looking for otherwise. Additionally, it’s also not a very large sample size. But in two different games where the Steelers had to face an opponent within five days of playing the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers are 0–2. The first of these losses came in 2020 after the Steelers moved their record to 11–0 by defeating the Ravens on a Wednesday afternoon in a game that was pushed back six days due to Covid issues within the Ravens locker room. The following Monday he Steelers lost their first game of the season to Washington. The other loss came on a Thursday night in Minnesota in 2021 after the Steelers had played the Ravens on Sunday.

Week 4 (.400)

Because this was something I stumbled across last year, I specifically was looking for it again. For some reason, the Pittsburgh Steelers do not have a very good track record during Week 4 of the regular season. The Steelers are 4–6 since 2014 and have lost in the last three seasons in Week 4. As for an explanation, this is a case where your guess is as good as mine.

Late afternoon away games (.438)

Since I was looking for results in prime time games, both home and away, I threw in 4 PM kickoffs as well. While the Steelers have a slightly favorable record in these games at home, it is not the case on the road as they are 7–9 over the last 10 seasons. Although this record does not look good, the Steelers actually won three out of four late afternoon games on the road in 2023. Looking since 2014, the Steelers actually had a .333 winning percentage on the road in these games heading into the 2023 season. So perhaps this trend is going in the more positive direction.

Prime time away games (.545)

Although having a winning record on the road is seen as a good thing in the NFL, the Steelers record in prime time when leaving Pittsburgh is lower than their overall winning percentage over the last 10 years. At 12-10, it’s not much better than a coin flip when the Steelers are on the road in prime time. What brought this number down the most is from 2019 through 2021 where the Steelers were 2–6 on the road in prime time.

After playing the Ravens (.625)

I must note that games from the first category listed above also fall into this category, which does bring it down significantly. But in looking at this exercise and mainly focusing on the AFC North and the weeks following those matchups, the Steelers have a winning record in all scenarios in the game following an AFC North opponent. But of the three teams, facing an opponent after playing the Ravens comes in at the bottom slightly under the Steelers overall record over the last 10 years. If the two games on a short week following a Ravens, matchup were excluded, the Steelers would have a .714 winning percentage in weeks after playing Baltimore. But those losses simply can’t be taken away which puts this as the last category I researched that fell below the Steelers typical standard.

So these are the worst spots on the schedule to keep in mind when looking at the Steelers matchups after they are released on Wednesday evening. Although nothing is certain and every new game is an opportunity, these are things to remember. A nightmare scenario for a game for the Steelers in 2024 would be if they were to travel to Philadelphia, a place they haven’t won since 1965, to play the Eagles on Thursday night in prime time in Week 4 after facing the Ravens the previous Sunday. Hopefully Steelers fans can avoid that one.