After a 41-win 2024, there’s not really one or even just a handful of attributes that the White Sox need to target when building out the 2025 roster. To put it bluntly – they need to get better at everything.

A lot of that is on the shoulders of their incumbent young players being more productive than they were a season ago. However, this plan lays out non-tendering/buying out some of regulars of the last 4+ seasons, making one blockbuster trade, and signing some veterans to short term deals in an attempt to make 2025 a successful building block to the next contending White Sox team.

40-Man Roster Additions:

• SS/3B Colson Montgomery
• RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
• RHP Adisyn Coffey
• LHP Trey McGough
• RHP Juan Carela

40-Man Roster Subtractions:

• RHP Jesse Scholtens
• SS Jacob Amaya
• SS Braden Shewmake
• C Chuckie Robinson
• OF Corey Julks

Arbitration Eligible Players

• Andrew Vaughn – $6.4 Million – non-tender

I don’t think this is as an easy of decision as some think.

It’s no secret that Vaughn has been a frustratingly average hitter over his White Sox tenure (.253/.310/.415, 102 wRC+ over 2,258 PA). Combine this with his poor glove, and he’s been a below replacement level player over his career after being drafted third overall.

Despite a 44-point drop in OPS and his wRC+ going from 103 down to 97 from 2023 to 2024, Vaughn actually made a bit better contact last season – his xwOBA was up slightly (.319 to .321), but that represented climbing from just the 38th percentile to the 51st. The same is true for his xSLG (51st percentile to 71st) and Barrel% (50th percentile to 63rd). These aren’t huge climbs, but it’s improvement, nonetheless.

He mashed lefties as a rookie in 2021 (154 wRC+) before evening out his splits in 2022. Then in 2023, he was randomly terrible against LHP (.227 BA, 72 wRC+) before getting back to preferring LHP in 2024 (119 wRC+ vs. LHP, 90 vs. RHP).

The point is – the fact that Vaughn showed some solid enough quality of contact metrics and has a career 115 wRC+ vs. southpaws means that he has some useful traits, even if his defense is that bad. Add in the fact that the team needs to fill in somewhere between four and seven spots in their lineup, and Vaughn for around $6 million isn’t crazy.

I landed on non-tender after coming up with the rest of this plan, but Vaughn could return in a DH role where he’s not given 500+ PA in 2025. They could also non-tender him and restart conversations around $2 or $3 million if Vaughn’s market, one that does have a lot of 1B options, isn’t robust. I don’t think anyone is trading for him at over $6 million, but maybe another organization believes they can unlock his potential.

• Nicky Lopez – $5.1 Million – non-tender, re-sign
• Garrett Crochet – $2.9 Million – tender
• Gavin Sheets – $2.6 Million – non-tender

Sheets was better in 2024 after a disastrous 2023, but we’re still talking about a -2.4 fWAR over the last two seasons. There looked to be something here after a great 2021 debut, but overall he’s put up a .227/.291/.368 slash with an 84 wRC+ through over 1,200 career PA – not good. He’s also been a liability defensively, granted the fact that he’s played 70% of his innings in the outfield isn’t his fault. Even if we’re not retaining Vaughn, this is an easy decision.

• Enyel De Los Santos – $1.7 Million – non-tender

His pitch quality metrics are trending in the wrong direction.

• Jimmy Lambert – $1.2 Million – non-tender
• Justin Anderson – $1.1 Million – tender

Anderson was a decent find last year. He’s got a nasty Slider with huge glove-side break that I’m sure Ethan Katz would like to work more with. His results and overall pitch quality don’t scream “absolutely tender”, but for a million bucks we’ll keep him.

• Steven Wilson – $1 Million – tender & trade

His 2024 results were disappointing, as his pitch quality took a significant dip. However, he’s still got a 115 Stuff+ headlined by a 125 Stuff+ Sweeper that came with him from San Diego. He needs to regain some of that Fastball velocity that he lost, but he’s good enough for me to tender at $1 Million to help fill out middle-relief.

• Matt Foster – $900K – non-tender

It was a small sample, but after recovering from Tommy John surgery, Foster didn’t have anywhere close to the same stuff in 2024 as he did in 2020/2021. Even back then, it was good, not great. I wouldn’t rule out an MiLB deal if they think his Fastball velocity will return.

Club Options

• Yoan Moncada: $25 million ($5 million Buyout) – buyout

There’s going to be a team that signs Moncada to a one-year deal this Winter that’s very excited about his upside, and rightfully so. There’s the potential that that team gets great value out of the deal. It’s just hard to picture a scenario where he plays more than 120 games. Steamer has him projected for 97 games played in 2025.

• Max Stassi: $7 million ($500k Buyout) – buyout

Impending Free Agents

• Michael Soroka – let go
• Mike Clevinger – let go
• Chris Flexen – let go

Free Agents

1.       OF Max Kepler – 1 year, $7 million + 2026 Club Option ($9 million, $1 million buyout)

Kepler is coming off a pretty rough 2024 season (by his own standards) in which he dealt with knee and hip injuries. He slashed .253/.302/.380 with a 94 wRC+ and a 1.0 fWAR over 105 games. This came after a 2023 where his 123 wRC+ was the best of his career.

Kepler’s power has somewhat fluctuated over his career, but he always gotten on base and played solid RF defense. The latter remained constant in 2024 (4 OAA in back-to-back seasons) while the former took a substantial dip. His OBP dropped 30 points from 2023 largely due to an almost 4% drop in his walk rate. His Chase% from 2020-2023 was consistently between 25 and 28%, but that rose to 35.6% in 2024 which was his highest of his career by far.

His quality of contact was also a lot worse, as he put up a lowly .302 xwOBA and 6.1% Barrel rate compared to .362 and 12.2% in 2023. In 2022, Kepler actually had a very similar year on the surface, putting up a .666 OPS and an identical 94 wRC+. The difference was that his issue wasn’t his chase rate in 2022, it was his 45% groundball rate, something he’s corrected over the last two campaigns. However, his underling quality of contact metrics were a lot better in 2022, so if you’re the White Sox, you’re betting on the fact that his knee and hip played a large role in both the quality of contact and swing decision fall offs.

So why take the gamble? Because we saw what he could do in 2023 after he made the change to his batted ball profile and was healthy. Also, I’m a firm believer in the floor of production that his defense provides. Almost everything went wrong offensively for Kepler in 2024, and he was still worth 1.0 fWAR over just 105 games for the Twins. Even if he just splits the difference between 2023 and 2024 in 2025, that should be a nice trade chip in July.

2.       RHP Jakob Junis – 2 years, $20 million

The lone guaranteed multi-year deal handed out. Over the last two seasons with San Francisco, Milwaukee and Cincinnati, Junis appeared in 64 games with just 10 of those as a starter. The breakdown last year was 6 starts in 24 outings. In those 6 starts, Junis averaged just under 5 IP with a 1.55 ERA, 2.72 FIP and 24% K to just 3% BB.

Junis made some changes to his pitch usage last season. In 2023, he threw his Sinker/Slider combination 89% of the time, mixing in the occasional Changeup and a rare 4-Seamer. In 2024, that combination was down to 81.5%, and he dropped his overall Slider usage from 62.5% to 45.3% as he diversified his arsenal.

Fastball (85 down to 78) and Slider (129 down to 122) Stuff+ dips like the ones Junis suffered in 2024 (112 down to 99 arsenal-wide) are usually huge red flags, but in this case, it was met with an almost equal uptick in his Location+ (100 to 108), and the overall result was his Pitching+ going to 105 to 108.  On the surface, Junis’ ERA dropped from 3.87 to 2.69 in the process with his FIP also dropping slightly from 3.74 to 3.69.

Through his first five major league seasons as a starter in Kansas City, Junis amassed a 4.82 ERA and a 4.74 FIP. This led him to be non-tendered prior to the 2022 season before the Giants signed him. Brian Bannister, the current Senior Advisor to Pitching for the Sox, held essentially the same position in San Francisco from 2020-2023. Since then, Junis has pitched to a 3.80 ERA and a 3.69 FIP, and this coincided with when Junis upped his Slider usage almost totally ditched his 4-Seamer for his now-prominent Sinker. Junis credits Bannister for articulating the data and biomechanics that make him more comfortable committing to the new Fastball shape – one that complemented his Slider better.

In an offseason focused so heavily on supplementing the offense, the White Sox do need to add at least one starting pitcher. Junis has some intriguing upside, and the Rock Falls, Illinois native might like the idea of re-connecting with Bannister to see if there could be an even further leap forward.

3.       LHP Jose Quintana – 1 year, $11 million

Even with all the major league-ready or near major league-ready starting pitcher candidates that the White Sox have heading into 2025, adding a second free agent starter would behoove them. I don’t think you can bank on a starting staff of Junis, Cannon, Martin, Thorpe and Burke covering you a full season’s workload. Plus, the other starting candidates on the 40-man that have appeared in an MLB game all have question marks as to whether they’ll be able to throw enough strikes to avoid the bullpen (e.g., Iriarte, Nastrini, Eder, Bush). By adding Quintana, a pitcher that’s covered at least 165 innings in 10 of the 11 full seasons he’s thrown since his rookie year, you can let Burke and Thorpe duke it out for the fifth starter role in Glendale.

Entering his age-36 season, Quintana isn’t exactly an exciting arm, but my goal here is to add some stable innings from a guy that can hopefully be a veteran leader on a major league club that will likely feature only a couple arms in their 30s. He’s not going to miss a lot of bats, and a lot of the peripherals and pitch quality models don’t favor him. What he did do in 2024 is roll a lot of groundballs and generally miss barrels. He’ll pass 2,000 innings for his career in 2025, one that has been generally under-appreciated.

4.       C Elias Diaz – 1 year, $5 million

Diaz’s 2021 season, in which he put up a 1.7 fWAR via 18 HRs, a 91 wRC+ and good defense behind the plate, netted him a three-year, $14.5 million contract extension from the Rockies. In 2022, he was 23% worse offensively and his defense, particularly his receiving, fell off a cliff. He was worth -1.2 fWAR in 2022 before a bounce back to replacement level in 2023.

In 2024, Diaz’s wRC+ remained in the low-80s, but his pitch receiving improved immensely as it got back to his 2021 levels. He modified he set up based on the hitter’s handedness, putting either knee down to put him in a better position to frame pitches. He had two Catcher Framing Runs last season that ranked 16th among qualified catchers in 2024. For reference, Martin Maldonado ranked 42nd while Korey Lee was 55th out of the 58 qualified catchers.

We’ll hopefully see a lot of Edgar Quero behind the plate in Chicago this season, but he’ll need a bit more AAA seasoning. Plus, Lee’s performance in a Sox uniform thus far has not inspired a lot of confidence in his long-term outlook with the team, so they’ll need to find another backstop via free agency or trade. I like Diaz as a mid-tier option to bridge to Quero.

5.      RHP Ryne Stanek – 1 year, $ 4 million

Stanek throws really hard. His Fastball averaged 97.7 mph last year, and that was tied for the 27th highest in MLB among guys that threw at least ten innings. His heater has good ride and arm-side run as well. He’s also got a good Splitter and Slider that are both thrown in the upper-80s. His 125 overall Stuff+ was in the 92nd percentile among that same group of pitchers.

Yet, he’s been a replacement level pitcher over the last two seasons, largely because his quality of contact has been poor. Particularly, he’s been homer prone. There are 212 relievers that have thrown 70+ innings over the last two seasons, and Stanek’s 1.36 HR/9 is the 33rd highest among that group (15th percentile). 11 of his 16 homers allowed have been given up on his Fastball, a pitch that he has thrown 60%+ in both seasons over that span.

An obvious solution here is to bring in Stanek and have him throw less Fastballs, leaning more on the Splitter and Slider that both grade out well. With this bullpen, I would try to hand the highest leverage innings to those that are performing the best rather than dictating concrete roles. There’s plenty of good stuff, and you hope at least two or three guys separate themselves as the high leverage options.

6.       2B/SS Nicky Lopez – 1 year, $2 million

Someone must play Shortstop on Opening Day. Lopez is coming off an almost identical offensive season to the one he had in 2023, but his defense regressed in 2024. The two mainstream defensive metrics are Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. The former has always favored Lopez’s defense compared to the latter. In his 5.5-win 2021 season, OAA had Lopez at a whopping 25 OAA while DRS had him at +3 when he played almost all his innings at SS. In 2024, he played roughly three quarters of his innings at 2B where OAA had him at 4 and DRS had him -1. At short, it was 1 OAA to -9 DRS. It’s clear that Lopez is a better defender at 2B, but despite his rough 2024 DRS at SS, I think he can be passible there until Colson Montgomery gets the call.

There are some other options, but the SS market is not very dense. Willy Adames is the clear top dog, but his defense fell of a cliff, and he may be interesting to teams as a third baseman moving forward. I really like Ha-Seong Kim (someone that’s been projected to the Sox), but it would have to be on a 2-4 year deal. If he’s looking for get healthy from his shoulder injury and rebuild his value to fetch a more lucrative multi-year contract next offseason, then I’m not sure the Sox, who would be looking to flip Kim prior to the trade deadline on a one-year deal, make a lot sense given that his return to play may not be until June or July according to Padres GM AJ Preller.

With Kevin Newman off the board after signing with Los Angeles, mid-tier options include a reunion with Paul De Jong or going after Jose Iglesias, but both are better suited for 2B or 3B at this stage of their careers. After that, you’re looking at players like Lopez, defensive wizard Nick Ahmed whose bat is even more paltry than Nicky’s, or other targets via the trade market.

7.       1B/OF Mark Canha – 1 year, $5 million

To fill the final position player spot on the roster, the optimal profile is a right-handed first baseman that can also play the corner outfield spots. Enter Mark Canha.

Canha’s best attribute is his ability to get on base. In 2024, his 102 wRC+ was his lowest since 2017, yet he still got on base at a .344 clip. In this plan, I have left-handers set to be regulars at both outfield corners and at DH, along with first base being manned by Miguel Vargas who certainly has upside, but played to a -1.2 fWAR in just 42 2024 contests. Vargas also only has three starts at 1B to his name. Aside from being a solid hitter through his mid-30s thus far, Canha’s versatility here is key. OAA had him as a league average outfielder in 2024 and +2 at 1B.

Against southpaws, Canha hit .275/.380/.394 with a 124 wRC+ in 2024 after he was at .264/.361/.464 with a 125 wRC+ in 2023. If he doesn’t become the everyday first baseman, Canha fits in well as a platoon partner with Andrew Benintendi.

EDIT: The White Sox reportedly agreed to terms with Austin Slater on Monday, which would likely fit Canha’s intended role in my plan.

8.       2B Thairo Estrada – 1 year, MiLB deal

Estrada put up a total up 7.4 fWAR from 2021 to 2023 (including a 3.5-win season in 2023) with the Giants before the bottom fell out last season. There’s a chance he could get a small major league deal, but my guess is that he’ll be looking for and MiLB deal opportunity with a team that gives him a shot to be the opening day second baseman. Though it could get tricky trying to make room on the 40-man roster, Estrada could beat out Lenyn Sosa for the final spot on the roster and have chance to get a lot of ABs.

9.       1B Rowdy Tellez – 1 year, MiLB deal

The Gavin Sheets archetype that could break camp with the team should Miguel Vargas and/or Bryan Ramos not show enough in the Spring to begin the season in Chicago.

Trades

1.       LHP Garrett Crochet & RHP Steven Wilson to Boston for DH/OF Masataka Yoshida, 2B/SS David Hamilton, 2B/OF Kristian Campbell, OF Braden Montgomery & RHP Jedixon Paez

Ok, let’s start with the prospects. Boston’s farm features what Red Sox Twitter calls their “Big 4” – OF Roman Anthony (#3 MLB, #11 FanGraphs), SS Marcelo Mayer (#7 MLB, #3 FanGraphs), 2B/OF Kristian Campbell (#10 MLB, NR FanGraphs), C Kyle Teel (#25 MLB, #42 FanGraphs).

Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel seem to firmly be in the Red Sox 2025 plans. Marcelo Mayer could certainly headline a Crochet return, and he, like both Anthony and Teel, hits left-handed and should be ready to debut in 2025. Boston’s current lineup, without Anthony and Teel, already features lefties Jaren Duran, Rafael Devers, Tristan Casas, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, and David Hamilton. They are all either in or are entering the prime of their careers. Aside from needing to supplement pitching, the Red Sox need to get more right-handed.

The package back to Chicago is led by Kristian Campbell, a 4th round pick by Boston in the 2023 draft from Geogia Tech. He had a great 2023 season for the Yellow Jackets (his lone season), slashing .376/.484/.549 with a 147 wRC+. He had just a 10.4% whiff rate with a strong quality of contact profile. The main reasons why he lasted all the way until pick 132 after posting those numbers in the ACC were his massive 56% groundball rate along with just league average defense, mainly at 2B.

Once drafted by Boston, the club quickly put him on a bat path program with the goal of cutting down that groundball rate that he dealt with both at Georgia Tech and in the Northwoods League. His intent was “just don’t hit a ground ball” with a goal of “hit everything in the air and as hard as possible”.

Campbell posted a 50% groundball rate in his first short stint in the Red Sox organization immediately after being drafted. Then, in Campbell’s first 40 games of 2024 at high-A Salem, that dropped to 42.1% with an ISO that ballooned to .252 and a 173 wRC+. He was even better after that earned him a promotion to AA Portland, lowering that groundball rate to 39.3% with a 197 wRC+ while also lowering his strikeout rate by almost 12% (down to 14.9% vs. 13.7% walks). He’s posted a .400+ OBP at each one of his stops through his pro career thus far. He’s always had the plate discipline, but the major refinement of his batted ball profile by Boston’s player development infrastructure has unlocked Campbell as a top prospect in MLB.

There are still question marks surround his defense. Boston moved him between SS and 2B while also giving him a taste of the outfield, where some evaluators believe will be his long-term home.

The second piece in the deal is Braden Montgomery, Boston’s 2024 first round pick (12th overall). After tearing up the Pac-12 in 2022 and 2023 along with two successful summers on the Cape, Montgomery transferred to Texas A&M to try his hand at SEC pitching. He did not disappoint. He slashed .322/.454/.733 with 27 HR and a 164 wRC+ that was the eighth best among qualified SEC hitters. As a switch hitter, that broke down to .353 average with a 1.262 OPS/179 wRC+ from the left side and a .224 average with an .899 OPS/112 wRC+ from the right side.

Montgomery had an impressive combination of swing decisions, bat speed, and feel for barreling the baseball. He crushed pitches at 93 mph or higher, hitting .423 with a 1.023 SLG as put that bat speed to good use. The only knocks on his offensive profile are his 46% ground ball rate that’s a bit higher than you want and hitting only 47% of his pulled batted balls in the air, a bit lower than you want. He was also a very solid right fielder for the Aggies (4.6 DRS).

The 21-year-old outfielder is recovering from a broken ankle he suffered in Game 1 of A&M’s Super Regional back in June.

The final prospect is 20-year-old right-handed pitcher Jedixon Paez, who is a control & command specialist. Through his first 288.1 professional innings, he’s walked only 46 hitters while keeping his FIP below 3.80 at every stop. In 2024, he threw his first 32 innings at low-A where he struck out 35 and walked just 4 in route to a 2.17 FIP. He was then promoted to high-A, where he posted a 3.67 FIP through his final 64.2 IP.

Paez, ranked as Boston’s 23rd best prospect by MLB Pipeline and 8th by FanGraphs, only sits in the low 90s with his Fastball that has a Sinker shape. Yet, he moves it around the zone with impressive precision. He also features a biting Slider that plays well off the shape of his Fastball, but his Changeup may be the best in his arsenal. He also has a low release slot and a cross-body delivery that creates some deception that supports his overall effectiveness.

Looking at the prospect return as a whole, the White Sox get two bats that fit in well with their current top prospect bats. I prioritized Campbell over Mayer here because a.) if the Red Sox have Mayer ahead of Campbell internally as most publications do, Campbell likely nets me better complimentary pieces, and b.) Mayer and Colson Montgomery might both end up as left-handed hitting, big, fringy SS defenders that need a move to 3B. I think they could certainly coexist, but I like the opportunity to diversify here.

Moving on to the major league players coming back to the White Sox, some believe the Red Sox could shop Wilyer Abreu or Tristan Casas in an effort acquire pitching, but undoubtedly their preferred route would be finding a taker for Masataka Yoshida. This opens the DH spot to feature more Rafael Devers and/or a right-handed free agent bat, such as retaining Tyler O’Neill or going after Teoscar Hernandez. Yoshida has been underwhelming through two seasons in Boston, producing just a 1.4 fWAR in total. His bat has been good, not $18 million AAV good, but still solid. Boston took him out of the outfield last season after he put up -8 OAA and -4 DRS in leftfield in 2023, and this represents his biggest problem – he’s bad out there.

However, he’s still a solid hitter, and the White Sox need a few of those. He represents a negative value contract, which is factored into who’s included in the rest of the return from Boston (i.e., most of Arias & Hamilton’s value). Yoshida, who will turn 32 in July, has another 3 years and $55.8 million remaining on his contract, and I have the White Sox assuming the full amount in this trade. With the White Sox likely not making a serious run at the postseason before the 2027 season (at the earliest), allocating this money to Yoshida shouldn’t be an issue. Why Yoshida isn’t a perfect fit is the existence of Andrew Benintendi on the roster, who’s a very similar defensively challenged left fielder on a very similar remaining three-year contact, but this is still worth it, especially with the DH glut of Jimenez, Vaughn, Sheets, etc. being cleared up.

The other major league player I have coming back to Chicago is David Hamilton, who I think is more expendable for Boston in the scenario where Marcelo Mayer is retained. Hamilton was called up by Boston in April to replace the injured Trevor Story, and he put up a 1.7 fWAR over 98 games. He slashed .248/.303/.395 with a 92 wRC+ and stole 33 bags. Defensively, he had 4 DRS and 0 OAA, but he was much better at 2B (8 DRS, 3 OAA) than SS (-4 DRS, -3 OAA).

2.       OF Oscar Colas to Miami for C Paul McIntosh

As the White Sox were attempting to salvage their contention window in 2023, Colas was thrust in the everyday right fielder role despite just 258 PAs above high-A in his minor league career. Colas did put up big numbers through all his stops in 2022, but his poor plate discipline, high groundball rate and fringy defense in the outfield – all factors that were evident in the minors – reared their ugly heads through his rookie campaign. For a 40-man roster that’s now not short of left-handed-hitting outfielders and Colas’ general need for a change of scenery, I’m trying to turn what’s left of his value into something that the 40-man needs.

After adding Elias Diaz and retaining Korey Lee, the goal here is to add a third catcher to the 40-man that’s an improvement over Chuckie Robinson who put up a 72 wRC+ in Charlotte and a -5 wRC+ in Chicago. Edgar Quero is coming, but we don’t want to force him up to the major league team should Diaz or Lee get hurt early in the season.

McIntosh signed in the Marlins in 2021 after going undrafted out of West Virginia University. Aside from a 28-game stop at AAA to finish 2023, the 27-year-old catcher hasn’t posted lower than a 112 wRC+ at any of his stops as a pro. He progressed well defensively as well to round out a solid profile. In 2024, he slashed .246/.340/.385 with a 118 wRC+, 12 HR, 10.4 BB%, 19.8 K% at AA Pensacola.

He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, or he risks being claimed in December’s Rule 5 draft.

Payroll

Approximately $116 million, which would’ve ranked 21st in MLB last season, and is $18 million less than last year’s payroll.