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Draft blunders are already evident for many NFL teams

Every year at the end of April, the NFL draft brings hope to 32 teams that seek to improve for the present and build for the future. Analyses of the event are everywhere. Obviously it’s impossible to know how things will ultimately turn out, but there is a way to mathematically quantify the results.

The first step toward doing so happens during the pre-draft process. This is when teams create a big board. My approach involves cataloguing the prospects by applying a grade to each, signifying the round in which it would be appropriate to select them. My player evaluations, with statistical data and workout numbers, can be found in my Draftionary.

The exercise of grading the players allows front offices to establish worth and priority; this makes it easy to identify value during the draft. For example: a prospect with a third-round grade available in the sixth is excellent value. And taking that player there would result in being three rounds over expectation (6 – 3 = +3). Drafting that player in round one would net a negative two (1 – 3 = -2).

This chart accounts for every prospect drafted by every team according to the above methodology. The teams are ordered by the “total” value they accumulated in the draft based on where they were drafting, which eliminates the bias for having multiple early picks — a pervasive consequence that exists when analysts use a subjective overview to grade team drafts.

Top-graded undrafted free agents who sign following the draft are accounted for in the “aggregate” column. So we see that according to my Draftionary prospect evaluations, Miami had the most efficient draft. But when including UFDAs, Minnesota — which inked three of my top seven — came out on top.

Use the 𝕏 link to see how your team fared.



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