Going into every NFL season, each team knows their exact opponents as soon as the previous regular season is complete. Still, there is plenty of hype around the NFL schedule release to find out exactly when the games are played. Why is this so? Because there are certain situations which could set a team up better or worse throughout the season.

I had addressed this issue before the schedule came out in May, and I noted several games that were going to be difficult for the Steelers simply based on how the schedule fell. This is what I mean by referring to these games as a “bad trend” game. Based on how things have broken down with the opponent, location, and the rest of the schedule, the Steelers may be in a more difficult situation in a given game than many realize.

Now that the Steelers are partway through the season, they have played two of these “bad trend” games and have managed to go 0–2 with both matchups being against inferior opponents. Unfortunately, the remaining two games are against high-quality opponents. So will the Steelers be able to break the trend?

To see exactly what I’m talking about with these trends, let’s look at the two that have already passed…

Week 4

I’m surprised how bad the Steelers are during one particular week of the season. But for some reason, the Steelers have struggled in Week 4 under head coach Mike Tomlin. Whether it be at home or on the road, this has been a bad spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Coming into this season, the Steelers were 5–10 in Week 4 since 2007, and 1– 5 on the road. Going to the Colts in Week 4, the Steelers made it 5–11 overall and 1–6 away from Pittsburgh.

But that wasn’t the only bad trend. Since 2007, the Steelers have never won a game in Week 4 in which they were also victorious in Week 3. Sometimes there were bye weeks in there (2020 for example), but they have not gone 2–0 in that span of games since 2004. So when the Steelers have managed to find a win in week four, it was either of the “bounce back” variety after coming off a loss or they were coming out of there bye week.

Going into Week 4 this season, I knew this was a bad spot for the Steelers. Despite my better judgment, I was looking for them to break this trend. Unfortunately I was wrong.

Thursday night in Cleveland

There is actually another aspect of this game which made it even worse, but we still have another example of this one coming later so I’ll save it until then. But playing on a short week and having to travel is not a good trend across the NFL, let alone for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Thursday Night Football came back with regularity in 2006, The Steelers are 11–11 when playing on a Thursday. Throwing out Week 1 matchups where they were not dealing with a short week, the Steelers are 9–10. Looking strictly at road matchups, the Steelers are 2–9 when traveling for a Thursday game since 2006. Those two wins came on Thanksgiving night in 2016 in Indianapolis and just before Christmas in 2007 in St. Louis.

After covering how poorly the Steelers have done on the road on Thursdays, what’s more important is the surprising trend of the Cleveland Browns when they are at home on Thursday night. Since they came back into the league in 1999, although the games didn’t start until 2006, the Browns are 9–1 at home on Thursday nights. For information sake, they are 1– 5 on the road which have all been AFC North matchups and their only win coming in Cincinnati in 2014. But at home, regardless of opponent, not only are the Browns now 9–1, they’re on a nine-game winning streak after defeating Pittsburgh this past week. Four of those nine games were against the Steelers coming in 2009, 2019, 2022, and 2024. For some reason, the Browns often play their best football in front of their home fans on a short week.

Just like the previous “bad trend” game in Week 4, I knew better than to pick the Steelers to win. But once again, I wanted to see them break the trend. Unfortunately it didn’t happen yet again.

Now let’s look at the two “bad trend” games the Steelers have remaining…

In Philadelphia

You may have heard this before, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have not won in the city of Philadelphia against the Eagles since 1965. I had incorrectly said in a podcast that it was 1962, which was the previous win the Steelers had in Philly. But for the 10 games they have traveled across the state, obviously not counting the preseason, the Steelers have fallen to the Eagles. Of those 10 losses, two came before Chuck Noll was the head coach of the Steelers, four losses came under Noll, one under Bill Cowher, and three under Mike Tomlin.

Can the Steelers break this trend in 2024? It is certainly possible. But the way the Philadelphia Eagles are playing right now, it’s going to be quite a difficult task.

Playing on a short week following a game against the Ravens

Obviously this has already happened once this season, and it didn’t buck the trend. Not only did the Steelers have to play in Cleveland on a Thursday, it was compounded by the negative trend of playing a team on a short week after facing the Ravens.

Since the Ravens became an official franchise in 1996, the Steelers had only had to face a team on a short week after playing Baltimore three times prior to this season. While this is bad, it’s not a common occurrence… until this year. The only time the Steelers have won a game on a short week after playing the Ravens came in 2018 when they defeated the Carolina Panthers at home on a Thursday night. Since then, the Steelers have gone 0–2 when facing a team less than six days after playing the Ravens. I did not include games where they played the Ravens on a Monday and played the following Sunday as that’s close enough to a regular week. But I did include in 2020 when the Steelers defeated the Ravens on a Wednesday (a game that was delayed six days due to Covid) and then lost to Washington the following Monday. The other loss came in 2021 after the Steelers defeated the Ravens in Pittsburgh but lost to the Minnesota Vikings the next Thursday.

With the Steelers falling to the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland last week, this now pushes their record to 1–3 when facing a team on a short week after playing the Ravens. Interesting enough, the Steelers have defeated the Ravens in all four games they faced them before heading into the short week.

While this makes for a “bad trend” with the Steelers taking on the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day only four days after facing the Ravens in Baltimore the prior Saturday, there are a couple things on their side. The Steelers are 2–0 when playing on Christmas Day, and they are getting a home contest. But they also are facing the Super Bowl champions.

So there are the remaining “bad trend” games the Steelers have left in 2024. If they were going to break one of these trends, they probably had a much better chance with one of their earlier matchups. But as we know in the NFL, anything can happen on any given Sunday.

So why am I bringing up this topic now? Frankly, I needed something to dive into during the Steelers “mini bye.“ But looking at it now isn’t terrible if you’re curious about the trends. One of the better trends for the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last 10 seasons going back through 2014 is how they have performed following Thursday Night Football as the Steelers are 9–2 coming out of their mini bye. Unfortunately, those two losses came in their last three games. As for the Cincinnati Bengals, a team currently coming out of there bye week, they are only 4–6 since 2014 when given two weeks to prepare for a team, and are 1–2 at home having been out scored 54–116. In the last 10 years, the Bengals have faced the Steelers coming out of there bye four times with all of the contests coming in Pittsburgh and are 2–2. Also, in the last 10 seasons the Steelersd are 9-2 after facing the Browns the previous week.

At least I could leave you on a more positive note.