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Sophomore Surge or Slump? Evaluating Last Year’s First-Round NFL Picks

As the 2023 NFL first-round draft picks enter their second season, their performances are under intense scrutiny. Some players flourished after their rookie year, while others are still struggling to find their rhythm.

Bryce Young: The Struggles of a No. 1 Pick

Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, faced an uphill battle during his rookie season. He finished at or near the bottom of several key passing categories, including the lowest yards per attempt in the league over the past decade at 5.5. His accuracy was another issue, and his deep-ball completion percentage was especially concerning—only 22.8 percent of his passes beyond 20 yards found their target.

To put that into perspective, he ranked 29th in the league for deep ball attempts, and only Mac Jones had a lower completion percentage on such throws.

Despite being known for his potential, Young lacks standout physical traits—he doesn’t have a powerful arm and rarely scrambles. He had just four designed runs for zero yards in his rookie season. Compounding these struggles was Carolina’s lackluster offensive system, which resulted in 62 sacks and limited offensive productivity. This led to the firing of head coach Frank Reich after Week 12.

In the offseason, the Panthers took steps to support their young quarterback by bringing in offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Canales, the man responsible for Baker Mayfield’s resurgence, was brought on to rejuvenate Young’s career, using a scheme that heavily features play-action and quicker passes to mitigate the 62 sacks Young endured.

The Panthers also made some key acquisitions, trading for WR Diontae Johnson and drafting WR Xavier Legette at No. 32 overall, while also adding two starting guards.

However, after a rocky 0-2 start in his sophomore campaign, Young was benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. The switch came after Young amassed just 245 passing yards, three interceptions, and no touchdowns in those two games. It remains unclear whether Young will get another chance under center this season, but his development will continue to be a focal point for Carolina.

Despite Bryce Young being benched as the Panthers’ quarterback, savvy bettors can still find value bets on the team, especially with changing dynamics that may lead to unexpected opportunities. North Carolina sports betting promos provide a variety of odds and promotions that fans can explore, from prop bets to in-game wagers, allowing them to capitalize on potential underdog scenarios or strong individual performances from other key players.

C.J. Stroud: A Stellar Start

C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick, quickly silenced critics who questioned his processing ability. He set a rookie record with 191 pass attempts before throwing his first interception in Week 6 and continued to impress throughout the season.

Stroud finished his rookie year with 4,108 passing yards in just 15 games, placing him third all-time among rookies. His 23:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio was the second-best for a rookie since the NFL merger, while his 8.2 yards per attempt was the highest for any rookie with over 300 attempts since 1970.

Stroud’s penchant for throwing deep stood out. His 9.0-yard average target depth ranked second in the NFL, and he completed 58.8 percent of passes beyond 20 yards. His deep throws resulted in eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Despite ranking 22nd in overall accuracy, Stroud’s performance was enough to earn him Rookie of the Year honors.

Heading into his second season, Stroud has even more firepower with the addition of Stefon Diggs to an already potent receiving corps, which includes Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

TE Dalton Schultz provides another reliable option, and the Texans’ trade for RB Joe Mixon adds a versatile pass-catching threat from the backfield. At 6-foot-3, 218 pounds, Stroud’s pocket mobility is solid, and while he didn’t run much as a rookie, his ability to extend plays will be key in his continued development.

In Week 2 of his sophomore year, Stroud completed 23 of 36 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown in a 19-13 win over the Bears, continuing to show the poise that characterized his rookie season. With no interceptions through two games, both wins, and a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio, Stroud is proving to be a key player in Houston’s early-season success.

Will Anderson Jr.: The Defensive Force

Will Anderson Jr. was another key first-round pick for the Texans in 2023, and they paid a hefty price to trade up and select him third overall. Despite battling injuries later in the season, Anderson still posted 59 quarterback pressures, ranking 22nd in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). His ability to play effectively against both the run and pass made him a standout defensive rookie.

Anderson’s strong start continued into the 2024 season, where he logged two tackles in Week 1 and followed it up with 1.5 sacks in Week 2. His ability to pressure the quarterback remains his most valuable asset, and with another year of experience under his belt, he is expected to take another step forward as a cornerstone of the Texans’ defense.

Anthony Richardson: Flashes of Potential Amid Injury Struggles

Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick, had a rookie season plagued by injuries, making it difficult to assess his full potential. He suffered a knee injury in Week 1, a concussion in Week 2, and a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. Despite limited action, Richardson showed glimpses of the player the Colts hoped for. He averaged 5.4 yards per rush and scored four rushing touchdowns, demonstrating his ability as a dual-threat quarterback.

Richardson’s ability to run the ball is one of his strongest attributes, and with a 6-foot-4”, 244-pound frame and 4.43-second 40-yard dash speed, he poses a unique challenge for opposing defenses. If he can stay healthy, Richardson has the potential to make a significant leap in his second year, especially with the Colts improving their receiving options and adding Adonai Mitchell to their roster as a deep threat.

Coach Shane Steichen, known for developing Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, will be crucial in guiding Richardson’s evolution as a quarterback. Steichen will likely focus on helping Richardson protect himself better to avoid further injuries, but Richardson’s role as a key part of a dynamic rushing attack with RB Jonathan Taylor will remain intact.

In the passing game, WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce offer reliable options, with the Colts also drafting Adonai Mitchell, a 6’2” receiver with 4.34 speed, to provide the deep threat that Richardson lacked last season. This offensive support could help Richardson develop his passing game, making him a potential top-five fantasy quarterback, provided he stays healthy.

In the Colts’ 16-10 loss to the Packers in Week 2, Richardson completed 17 of 34 passes for 204 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. He also added four carries for 37 yards but had two fumbles that he managed to recover. Richardson’s growing pains were evident against a Packers defense that stepped up their game to make up for Jordan Love’s absence on offense.

Two of Richardson’s interceptions occurred deep in Packers territory, and the third came on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the game.

Despite these struggles, Richardson demonstrated a strong connection with Alec Pierce, who finished the game with a 5-56-1 line on seven targets. However, Richardson failed to establish significant chemistry with No. 1 receiver Michael Pittman, who caught just three passes for 21 yards on seven targets.

Richardson has also failed to complete 50 percent of his passes through his first two games, making improved efficiency a critical focus as he prepares for a tough Week 3 matchup against Caleb Williams and the Bears.

Devon Witherspoon: A Defensive Standout

Devon Witherspoon, the fifth overall pick, had an excellent rookie campaign. He was on the field for 100 percent of defensive snaps from Week 1 and recorded 11 pass breakups across 14 games. Witherspoon held opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 87.6 when targeted and also contributed as a pass rusher, tallying 3.0 sacks and eight tackles for loss.

Witherspoon has quickly established himself as a leader on the Seahawks’ defense. His vocal presence on the field, combined with his playmaking abilities, makes him an invaluable part of Seattle’s defensive scheme. He has already recorded 14 tackles in the first two games of his sophomore season, showing his versatility as both a run defender and pass defender.

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